Alberta Sovereignty Support Collapses: New Polls Show Strong Canadian Unity

Fresh polling shows strong support for national unity, exposing separatist rhetoric as loud but hollow

For years, political drama has swirled around the idea of Alberta breaking away from Canada. From sovereignty bills to “Wexit” slogans, the notion of Western separation has been dangled like a threat. But new data from Pollara and Abacus Data—both collected in May 2025—cut through the noise. The numbers show that most Albertans, and most Canadians, aren’t interested in tearing the country apart. They want reform, not rupture. They want fairness, not flags of independence. And they’re not buying the separatist hype.

Despite loud rhetoric, support for Canadian unity remains strong across every region. The separatist movement lacks public momentum, emotional fuel, and a credible path forward.

Support for Separation Is Weak and Shrinking

If Alberta were truly on the brink of separation, you’d expect to see a groundswell of public support. But Pollara’s national unity survey found that 75 percent of Canadians would vote to stay in Canada if a referendum were held. That includes 68 percent of Albertans. Even in Saskatchewan, often lumped in with Alberta as a separatist-leaning province, 69 percent would vote to remain. British Columbia leads the West with 83 percent support for staying in Confederation.

Abacus Data’s Alberta sovereignty poll backs this up. Only 18 percent of Albertans said they would vote “yes” to independence. A full 69 percent said “no.” Even among United Conservative Party voters—the supposed base of Alberta sovereignty—only 30 percent support independence, while 54 percent oppose it. That’s not a movement. That’s a noisy minority.

Quebec, often seen as the historical epicenter of separatist sentiment, isn’t showing much heat either. Pollara found that only 29 percent of Quebecers would vote to leave Canada. That’s far below the levels seen during past referendums. In short, no province has the numbers to make separation a serious threat.

The Emotional Fuel Is Fading

Separatist movements thrive on feelings of unfair treatment and betrayal. But those feelings are cooling. Pollara found that perceptions of federal unfairness have declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan since 2022. That’s a signal that national institutions are regaining trust. When people feel heard, they’re less likely to walk away.

Even the election of Mark Carney as Prime Minister didn’t spark a revolt. Pollara asked Canadians whether Carney’s win made them more or less likely to support separation. Across the country, more people said it made them less likely. In Alberta, only 31 percent said it increased their separatist leanings, while 24 percent said it decreased them. The rest said it made no difference. That’s a strategic blow to those hoping to use federal leadership as a wedge.

Abacus found something similar. While 56 percent of Albertans are following the sovereignty issue closely, only 14 percent believe Alberta will actually leave Canada in the next five years. That’s not a threat. That’s a shrug. Even those who support sovereignty don’t believe it’s going to happen. And without belief, there’s no momentum.

The polling also shows that Canadians outside Alberta overwhelmingly believe separation is unlikely and undesirable. There’s no cross-provincial appetite for rupture. No national sympathy. No critical mass.

Sovereignty Is Symbolic, Not Strategic

The idea of Alberta sovereignty seems more symbolic than serious. Abacus found that many Albertans see independence as a way to express frustration—not a real constitutional goal. That distinction is fatal to separatist strategy. It reveals the movement as performative, not transformative.

This matters because political energy is finite. If sovereignty is just a protest slogan, it won’t translate into policy, legislation, or lasting change. It becomes a pressure valve, not a blueprint. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing. The Sovereignty Act may dominate headlines, but it hasn’t shifted public opinion in a meaningful way.

Even among those who support independence, there’s no clear plan. No roadmap. No economic model. No legal framework. That vacuum makes it easy for critics to dismiss the movement as unserious—and for supporters to quietly drift away.

Meanwhile, Canadians across regions still identify with the nation. The desire to improve Canada is stronger than the desire to abandon it. That’s the real story. And it’s one worth telling.

The Country Is Stronger Than the Headlines Suggest

So what does this mean for proud Canadians? It means the country is stronger than the headlines suggest. It means Western alienation doesn’t equal separatist intent. And it means most people still believe in Canada—even when they’re frustrated with Ottawa.

The data shows that Canadians want a better Canada, not a broken one. They want fairness, representation, and reform. But they want those things within the framework of Confederation. That’s a powerful message—and one that should give national leaders confidence to act boldly.

It also gives everyday Canadians a reason to feel proud. Despite regional tensions, economic pressures, and political noise, the country is holding together. Not because of fear, but because of shared values. Not because of inertia, but because of belief.

The separatist movement may still make headlines. But it’s not making progress. And that’s good news for anyone who believes in the promise of Canada.