Let’s be clear: Alberta is special. The province boasts the stunning Rocky Mountains, vast reserves of oil and gas, and a culture of rugged individualism that has shaped its politics for generations. But Alberta is not special in the way separatists think it is. The idea that Alberta can break away from Canada, ditch federal programs, launch its own currency, and somehow become richer is not just naïve - it’s economically suicidal.
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s fiscal plan reads like a libertarian fever dream. No income taxes. No GST. No federal transfers. A new currency backed by oil, gold, and Bitcoin. And yet, somehow, we’re supposed to believe this will attract investment, grow the economy, and make Albertans wealthier.
Rubbish.
Bitcoin-backed currency? What could go wrong?
That’s not satire. That’s actually in the plan. A currency backed by oil (which fluctuates), gold (which is stable but limited), and Bitcoin (which is a speculative asset with no intrinsic value). Businesses don’t want gimmicks. They want stability. They want predictability. And they want to know the rules won’t change overnight.
Alberta thinks it’s different. But it’s not. Quebec thought it was different too. In the 1990s, when separatist sentiment surged, over 700 corporate headquarters fled Montreal. Tens of thousands of jobs disappeared. Why? Because companies hate uncertainty more than they love low taxes.
Let’s break this down:
- Low taxes aren’t enough. If they were, every company would be headquartered in the Cayman Islands or the Isle of Man. They’re not. Because those places lack scale, infrastructure, talent, and, most importantly, stability.
- Currency risk is a dealbreaker. A brand-new Alberta Dollar backed by volatile commodities is a red flag for investors. Oil prices swing wildly. Bitcoin is a rollercoaster. No serious business wants to peg its payroll or contracts to that kind of instability.
- Trade barriers will hurt everyone. An analysis by University of Calgary Economics professor Dr. Trevor Tombe shows even a modest 5% increase in trade costs would shrink Alberta’s economy by 4%. That’s a $20 billion hit - roughly $2,900 per person. And it’s not just Alberta. British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Ontario would also take a hit. But Alberta would suffer most.
- Population loss is inevitable. Tombe estimates 400,000 Albertans would leave post-separation, seeking economic opportunities elsewhere. That is nearly 1 in 10 Albertans. That’s not just people - it’s talent, entrepreneurs, and skilled workers. Once they go, they take their income taxes, spending power, and innovation with them.
- Pipelines don’t respect borders. Alberta’s oil exports rely on infrastructure that runs through other provinces. Post-separation, those provinces could slap tolls or restrictions on Alberta’s oil. That means less profit for producers, less revenue for the government, and more headaches for everyone.
The Fiscal Plan Is a Mirage
The Value of Freedom document is riddled with magical thinking. It promises to eliminate personal and corporate income taxes, plus the GST. That’s over $50 billion in lost revenue - more than half of what the new country would supposedly collect. Meanwhile, it casually erases programs like Old Age Security and the Canada Child Benefit with no replacement. That’s a $10 billion hole in social support.
Defense spending is laughably underestimated. NATO’s 2% of GDP target would cost Alberta $10 billion, not the $2–6 billion they claim. And that’s before you factor in the cost of building a new border agency, central bank, and diplomatic corps from scratch.
If this plan is so brilliant, where are the experts?
Let’s ask the obvious: if this fiscal plan is so sound, why hasn’t a single recognized economist endorsed it? Where is the university professor saying, “These numbers are legit”? If the math worked -- if the projections were credible, the assumptions defensible, and the outcomes plausible -- wouldn’t someone with actual expertise have stepped forward to validate it?
They haven’t. Not one academic economist. Not one former finance minister. Not one policy institute. Just silence.
And that silence speaks volumes. Because in public policy, credibility isn’t just earned—it’s tested. Real plans get peer-reviewed. They get challenged, refined, and defended in front of experts who know how to spot fantasy from feasibility. But this plan? It’s been paraded around political rallies and fringe podcasts, not economic forums or university panels.
The absence of endorsement isn’t just a red flag - it’s a flashing billboard. It tells us that the people who understand fiscal policy best don’t take this seriously. And if they don’t, why should Albertans?
Why isn’t there an endorsement?
Because the plan isn’t built by economists. It’s built by a businessmen, a surgeon and a disgraced lawyer - none of whom has the faintest qualification to design a national economy. Not one of them has governed a population, drafted a budget for a state, or negotiated a trade agreement. They’ve never managed currency risk, never built fiscal policy, and never operated within the machinery of government.
They are amateurs playing nation-builder.
One is a retired heart surgeon. Another is a logistics consultant. The third was reprimanded by the Law Society and ordered to pay $10,000 in costs. This is the trio behind Alberta’s supposed roadmap to independence. Not a single one has experience in public finance, constitutional law, or macroeconomic planning.
And yet they expect Albertans to trust them with the creation of a new country.
This isn’t bold leadership. It’s reckless improvisation.
Let’s look at the architects.
Dennis Modry (Heart Surgeon) Dr. Modry is a decorated heart and lung transplant surgeon who led Western Canada’s transplant program for decades. He served on hospital committees, medical associations, and provincial finance advisory groups. His accolades include national medals and recognition for medical innovation. He positions himself as a champion of Alberta’s future, citing his authorship of a 2003 autonomy treatise and long-standing political interests.
Despite his medical brilliance, Modry has no experience in economics, governance, or public budgeting. He’s never run a treasury, negotiated trade, or designed fiscal policy. His credentials are clinical—not constitutional.
Jeffrey Rath (Lawyer) Rath is a courtroom lawyer with a long history of litigation, particularly in Aboriginal and environmental law. He’s appeared before multiple appellate courts and regulatory tribunals, including the Supreme Court of Canada. His firm touts his role in landmark cases and his advocacy for First Nations. Rath studied law at LSE and the University of Alberta and has practiced for over 30 years.
But Rath has never managed a public budget, built a central bank, or designed a currency. He was recently reprimanded by the Law Society and fined $10,000 - raising serious questions about judgment and credibility.
Dennis Kalma (Logistics Consultant) Kalma describes himself on LinkedIn as a “Program Manager with deep knowledge of business transformations.” He’s led SAP implementations and logistics overhauls for global firms, managing budgets up to $350 million. He claims experience writing business plans around the world and overseeing IT strategy for billion-dollar operations. His career spans corporate logistics, systems integration, and executive advisory roles.
Yet Kalma has no background in public finance, constitutional law, or macroeconomic policy. His expertise lies in corporate IT - not in designing sovereign fiscal frameworks or national currencies.
These are the people asking Albertans to trust them with the creation of a new country. No economists. No constitutional scholars. No former finance ministers. Just a trio of private-sector retirees with no qualifications in statecraft.
A heart surgeon, a logistics consultant, and a lawyer with a disciplinary record - none of whom has governed, drafted public budgets, or built fiscal policy. They’ve never negotiated trade, managed currency risk, or operated inside a government. Yet they claim authority to dismantle a nation and build another from scratch.
This isn’t leadership. It’s reckless improvisation masquerading as vision.
This Isn’t Dubai. It’s Brexit Without the Safety Net.
Dubai has low taxes, yes - but it also has a stable currency, strong institutions, and a strategic location. Alberta has none of those. And unlike the UK, which had trade agreements, a central bank, and global clout, Alberta would be starting from zero.
The dream of independence might feel empowering, but the consequences would be devastating. Alberta isn’t immune to the laws of economics. Separation wouldn’t make it richer - it would make it poorer, smaller, and more isolated.
Force the separatists to answer: why are they so eager to sabotage Alberta’s future? No amount of oil, Bitcoin, or bluster can patch the damage they’re proposing.