Summary: Ever wonder why companies flee at the first hint of separatism? When politics become unpredictable, firms delay investments, set aside larger cash reserves, and often move their operations to safer markets. Quebec saw 368 head offices leave before its first referendum, and Montreal lost 21.9 percent of Canada’s top 500 headquarters by 2011. In 2017 Catalonia’s major banks relocated ahead of its vote, and Brexit cost London some 40,000 finance jobs. Alberta’s long-term energy projects depend on a stable political climate—any talk of separation risks the same corporate exodus.
If you care about keeping good jobs and solid growth in Alberta, reject separatist uncertainty today.
Businesses Hate Risk and Uncertainty
Every business decision carries risk. When the ground shifts beneath your feet—whether through new regulations, volatile markets, or political turmoil—companies look for safer ground. Uncertainty raises the cost of planning, forces firms to set aside extra reserves, and scares off investors. In Alberta’s energy-centered economy, stability is vital. Even the threat of major change can spook boards and prompt executives to move operations elsewhere.
Lessons from Quebec’s Referendums
Quebec’s two sovereignty referendums offer a stark warning. In 1979, The New York Times ran “Montreal Mausoleum” to describe the city’s slide after the Parti Québécois took power. Between late 1976 and early 1979, nearly 400 Quebec businesses moved their head offices out of the province as firms feared economic isolation. By April 1982, UPI warned in “The continuing exodus of corporate head offices from Montreal” that at least 28 major companies had shifted headquarters over three years, costing some 6,500 jobs and leaving Quebec with 629 fewer firms since 1979 . Even the hope of secession can trigger a flight: anglophone workers and investors left in droves before votes, draining talent and capital.
A similar pattern emerged after the 1995 referendum. Although Quebec ultimately rejected independence, the damage was done. The Montreal Stock Exchange merged into Toronto’s, and long-established corporations quietly moved key operations across provincial lines. By 2011 Montreal’s share of Canada’s top 500 headquarters had dropped from 19.2 percent in 1990 to 15.0 percent—a 21.9 percent decline by one measure. Every lost office meant jobs, taxes, and economic spin-offs gone for good.
Several high-profile firms abandoned Montreal in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Sun Life Financial led the exodus in 1978, moving its headquarters to Toronto and taking about 800 employees. Royal Trust and Standard Life followed, shifting their head offices to Toronto during the same period. Monsanto Canada and Sheraton Hotels also relocated their Canadian headquarters, weakening Montreal’s appeal to multinational corporations. Even the Bank of Montreal, without changing its official address, transferred thousands of jobs and key operations to Toronto. These departures stripped Montreal of critical financial talent and infrastructure—and they show how quickly businesses will flee at the first sign of political uncertainty.
Lessons from Catalonia’s 2017 Referendum
In October 2017, Arab News headlined “Flight of head offices from Catalonia: Quebec went through it,” highlighting that banks Sabadell and CaixaBank, along with major firms like Abertis, moved registered headquarters out of Catalonia to avoid being cut off from the EU market. The real-estate giant Colonial and toll-road operator Abertis followed suit, citing political uncertainty. As in Quebec, business leaders warned that secession talk—even if unsuccessful—can inflict real damage by prompting preemptive relocation.
Lessons from Brexit
The United Kingdom’s 2016 vote to leave the EU shows how deep the impact can run. Reuters reported under the stark headline “City of London chief says Brexit ‘disaster’ cost 40,000 finance jobs” that by late 2023 London had shed roughly 40,000 financial-sector positions to EU capitals like Dublin and Paris ([Reuters][1]). Consulting firm EY found that more than 7,000 finance roles moved from London to the EU by early 2022 under “Brexit: more than 7,000 finance jobs have left London for EU, EY finds”.
Beyond financial services, the exodus included 269 banking and asset-management companies relocating parts of their operations, moving over US \$1 trillion in assets out of Britain by 2019, and confirming 239 relocations as directly Brexit-related ([Wikipedia][3]). Small- and medium-sized enterprises saw a 9.2 percent annual drop in services exports between 2016 and 2019, a cumulative loss of US $146.8 billion, as firms faced tariff uncertainty and market access questions.
Why Alberta Can’t Afford the Same Fate
Alberta depends on stable investment to fund pipelines, refineries, and technology upgrades. A push for separation or even talk of major constitutional change would raise borrowing costs, fuel capital flight, and undermine confidence in long-term projects. Lenders would demand higher rates to offset the perceived political risk. Insurance underwriters might exclude certain political events. Attracting foreign direct investment would become an uphill battle.
Pro-business? Hardly.
Separatist leaders often promise that a new economic order will emerge, free from federal controls. But the evidence shows that any bid for secession sends shockwaves:
· In Quebec, 368 firms left before the first referendum, and 700 left afterwards, including tens of thousands of jobs.
· In Catalonia, major banks fled ahead of the 2017 vote.
· In the UK, at least 7,000 finance jobs relocated by 2022 and 40,000 were lost overall due to Brexit.
Businesses don’t back uncertainty. They hire lawyers and lobbyists, plan exit routes, and hedge their bets. When political risk tops their list, they move capital—and jobs—elsewhere.
What Albertans Must Do
Alberta’s leaders should recognize that stability keeps enterprise thriving. A united Canada, with clear rules and accessible markets, offers the certainty businesses need to invest in jobs and innovation. If separatist ambitions gain momentum, corporate boards will reconsider Alberta’s place in their plans. That risks thousands of good-paying positions, lost tax revenue, and weaker communities across the province.
The lesson from other regions is clear: talk of separation scares off companies faster than any campaign promise can bring them back. Albertans who care about jobs, growth, and resilient communities should demand a firm commitment to Canada’s future. Only a stable political environment can ensure that the province remains a place where businesses want to grow, not where they look to escape.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/city-london-chief-says-brexit-disaster-cost-40000-finance-jobs-2024-10-16/ "City of London chief says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobs"
[2]: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/29/brexit-finance-jobs-london-eu-ey-paris-frankfurt-dublin "Brexit: more than 7000 finance jobs have left London for EU, EY finds"
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit"Economic effects of Brexit"
[4]: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s42214-024-00202-6 "How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms?"