BP just dropped a truth bomb: global oil demand has peaked. Not “someday soon.” Not “by 2030.” Now. As in, the world is already shifting away from oil while Alberta’s leaders and separatist dreamers are still busy building castles out of bitumen.
They’re selling a fantasy: that Alberta is sitting on endless oceans of crude, that oil prices will soar forever, and that this magic money will fund everything—no income taxes, shiny new services, even a homegrown military. Some are even floating the idea of tying a new Alberta dollar directly to oil prices, while claiming a $65 billion surplus is just around the corner.
It’s a seductive story. But it’s fiction. And it’s dangerous.
Alberta’s current leaders and separatist advocates are clinging to a dying economic model, ignoring global energy trends, and misleading the public with fantasies of oil-fueled independence. The world is pivoting to renewables, and Alberta risks being left behind—economically, politically, and strategically—if it keeps betting the farm on crude.
The Mirage of Endless Oil Wealth
Let’s start with the myth: Alberta has “gazillions” of dollars in oil, and the world will keep buying it forever. It’s a comforting idea. Oil has powered Alberta’s economy for decades, and when prices spike, it feels like winning the lottery. But BP’s latest Energy Outlook makes it clear: the global oil party is winding down.
Even in BP’s conservative scenarios—where climate action is slow—oil demand plateaus by 2025 and then starts to fall. In more aggressive models, the drop is sharp and permanent. Meanwhile, renewables are exploding in growth. Solar, wind, and battery tech are getting cheaper and more efficient every year. Countries are racing to decarbonize, and investors are pulling money out of fossil fuels.
This isn’t just a green dream. It’s economics. Oil is becoming less competitive. And Alberta’s reserves, especially the carbon-heavy oil sands, are among the most expensive and environmentally damaging to extract. That’s not a winning formula in a world chasing cleaner, cheaper energy.
The Political Fantasy: Streets Paved with Bitumen
Despite this, Alberta’s political class is doubling down. Premier Danielle Smith and her allies continue to treat oil as the province’s golden ticket. They talk about surpluses, tax cuts, and prosperity as if the global energy transition isn’t happening. And separatists? They take it even further.
In their vision, Alberta breaks away from Canada, builds its own currency (tied to oil, of course), and funds every imaginable service—healthcare, education, defense—without income taxes. Oil money will do it all. The streets will be paved with gold. Or maybe just asphalt.
It’s a seductive pitch. Who wouldn’t want low taxes, high services, and total control? But it’s built on sand. Or more accurately, on bitumen that’s losing its value.
The $65 Billion Surplus Lie
Let’s talk numbers. Some separatist advocates claim Alberta could run a $65 billion surplus if it kept all its oil revenues and ditched federal transfers. That sounds impressive—until you look closer.
First, oil prices are volatile. They spike, they crash, they wobble with global politics. Tying your entire economy to oil is like building a house on a trampoline. Second, Alberta’s oil royalties are already declining as global demand softens. And third, the province still relies heavily on federal support for things like pensions, disaster relief, and equalization.
Cutting ties with Canada doesn’t magically erase those costs. It just shifts the burden. Defense alone—if Alberta wanted its own military—would cost billions. And without federal institutions, Alberta would need to build its own systems from scratch. Courts, passports, border security, trade negotiations. That’s not cheap.
The Alberta Dollar: A Currency on Crude
Then there’s the idea of an Alberta dollar tied to oil. It’s bold. It’s also reckless.
Currencies need stability. Oil doesn’t offer that. Imagine your paycheck shrinking every time oil dips. Or inflation soaring when prices spike. It’s economic chaos. No serious economist recommends pegging a currency to a single volatile commodity—especially one the world is trying to phase out.
And what happens when oil demand drops for good? Your currency collapses. Your savings vanish. Your economy implodes.
The Global Shift: Alberta’s Wake-Up Call
While Alberta clings to oil, the rest of the world is moving on. The U.S., Europe, China—they’re investing in renewables, electric vehicles, and green infrastructure. Even major oil companies like BP and Shell are pivoting, pouring billions into clean energy.
This isn’t just about climate. It’s about competitiveness. Countries that lead the energy transition will dominate the future economy. Alberta, with its deep engineering talent and natural resources, could be part of that. But not if it keeps pretending oil is forever.
The Cost of Clinging to the Past
If Alberta continues down this path—doubling down on oil, flirting with separatism, and ignoring global trends—it risks becoming an economic backwater. Investors will flee. Young talent will leave. And the province will be stuck with outdated infrastructure and shrinking revenues.
Worse, it will lose credibility. Right now, Alberta has influence within Canada. It can shape national policy, advocate for its interests, and benefit from shared prosperity. But separatism built on oil delusion? That’s a recipe for isolation.
Conclusion: Time to Grow Up
Alberta’s leaders and separatist advocates need a reality check. The oil boom is ending. The world is changing. And building an entire political and economic vision on crude is not just foolish—it’s dangerous.
There’s still time to pivot. Alberta can invest in renewables, diversify its economy, and lead the energy transition. It can be bold, innovative, and forward-thinking. But first, it needs to let go of the fantasy.
Because the future isn’t paved with oil. It’s built with vision. And right now, Alberta’s is stuck in the past.