Alberta’s economy is built on connections. Whether it is oil, natural gas, agriculture, or manufactured goods, much of what Alberta produces doesn’t stay here. It gets shipped east and west—mainly to other provinces. When Albertans talk about separating from Canada, some like to imagine a future with fewer taxes and more money in their pockets. But those arguments ignore one basic fact: Alberta needs trade with other provinces more than anyone admits, and leaving Canada would threaten the very lifeline that keeps Alberta’s economy strong.
Alberta’s prosperity depends on easy, reliable trade with the rest of Canada—especially for discretionary exports—and separation would make that trade more difficult, costly, and even politically toxic, hurting Albertans for years to come.
Alberta’s Economy Runs on Trade
Look at the numbers. Alberta exports tens of billions of dollars’ worth of goods to the rest of Canada every year—oil, gas, electricity, beef, grains, manufactured products, and more. According to ATB Financial, Alberta’s interprovincial exports totaled about $60 billion in 2022. That is not pocket change; it is a third of all the goods and services Alberta sells to the outside world. While much attention is given to international exports, especially oil to the United States, the reality is that sales to other Canadian provinces are just as critical to jobs and the tax base here.
These are not just raw materials. Think about food products, construction materials, machinery, and services. Alberta sells electricity to British Columbia, oil and refined fuels to Ontario and Quebec, and agricultural products all across the Prairies. In other words, Alberta is deeply plugged in to the Canadian economy—and benefits directly from open, tariff-free trade with its neighbours.
Separation Means Barriers—And Barriers Mean Pain
Right now, Alberta’s goods move freely across provincial borders. There are no tariffs, no customs paperwork, and no border delays. That’s because of Canada’s single market. But if Alberta leaves Canada, that all changes overnight. Alberta would become a “foreign” country, and every truckload of oil, grain, beef, or machinery headed to British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Ontario, or Quebec would be crossing an international border. That means new paperwork, new fees, and likely new restrictions.
Just look at Brexit for a recent example. When the United Kingdom left the European Union, businesses suddenly faced higher costs, more red tape, and lower profits. Trade volumes fell, and the UK’s economy shrank. The same would happen to Alberta. Non-tariff barriers—like new inspections, customs checks, and regulatory mismatches—would slow down trade and make Alberta’s exports less competitive. Research shows that even a 5 percent increase in trade costs could shrink Alberta’s economy by 4 percent, or about $20 billion a year. At the higher end, losses could be $30 billion. That’s not something you can make up by cutting taxes or printing a new currency.
“They Need Us” Is a Dangerous Myth
Some separatist arguments claim that because other provinces rely on Alberta’s oil and goods, Canada would never risk cutting off trade. That view is not only naïve, it is risky. If Alberta breaks up the country, the rest of Canada will not go out of its way to help Alberta succeed. In fact, resentment will run high. Canadians from coast to coast will remember who walked away—and they will use every tool available to protect their own interests. That means everything from special tolls on Alberta oil pipelines running through B.C. and Saskatchewan to new “Buy Canadian” policies in Ontario and Quebec. Politicians elsewhere will have a field day punishing Alberta to show their own voters they are defending Canada.
It is a mistake to think Alberta holds all the cards. Most of Alberta’s oil and gas is shipped through pipelines and infrastructure owned or controlled by Canadian companies, regulated by Canadian governments, and running through Canadian territory. If Ottawa or the provinces decide to impose new costs, they will do it—and Alberta will have no say. Even small increases in transportation or regulatory costs will quickly eat away at profits, threaten jobs, and push companies to move their headquarters elsewhere. The so-called “leverage” Alberta holds is far less than separatists pretend.
Reputation Damage: The Hidden Cost
Trade is about more than money and products. It is also about trust and reputation. Right now, Alberta benefits from being seen as part of a stable, reliable country. Canadian companies in other provinces know they can do business with Alberta partners, hire Alberta workers, and invest in Alberta projects without worrying about political risk. That trust would disappear if Alberta left Canada.
The result? Investment dries up, joint ventures disappear, and companies in Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. look elsewhere for suppliers. Banks tighten their lending, insurance becomes more expensive, and fewer people want to risk doing business in Alberta. At the same time, tens of thousands of Albertans whose jobs depend on those relationships—engineers, truckers, accountants, IT professionals, farm workers, and more—face an uncertain future.
Referendum Fallout Lingers in Quebec—A Warning Sign for Alberta
Ipsos polling reveals that decades after Quebec’s referendum, deep divisions and uncertainty still affect the province. Many Quebecers remain unsure of their future within Canada, and trust between Quebec and the rest of the country has never fully recovered. The emotional and political wounds are long-lasting, leading to persistent debates about identity and belonging. If Alberta were to pursue separation, similar divisions would likely emerge—not only inside Alberta, but also between Alberta and other provinces. The process would damage national unity, disrupt established relationships, and make future cooperation difficult. Economic and social costs would follow, as investors and citizens react to the instability. The Quebec experience shows that referendums on separation can create wounds that do not heal easily, and Alberta would not be immune.
Separation Means Fewer Jobs, Fewer People, and Shrinking Cities
History proves this is not an empty threat. When Quebec ramped up talk of separation in the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of companies pulled out and moved to Ontario. Investment slowed, tens of thousands of jobs disappeared, and Quebec’s status as a “have” province turned into a “have-not” overnight. Today, Alberta risks making the same mistake. Economic models predict that if trade barriers rise, Alberta’s population could shrink by up to 8 percent, as 400,000 people leave for better opportunities elsewhere. That would be devastating for Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer, and every small town that depends on a strong, growing province.
What About Oil? It Is Not a Get-Out-of-Jail-Free Card
Some argue that Alberta’s oil will always find buyers, so it does not matter what the rest of Canada thinks. This ignores a key point: almost every pipeline that moves Alberta oil to global markets runs through another province. British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and even Manitoba will suddenly have the upper hand. If those provinces decide to levy new tolls or negotiate tougher deals, Alberta producers pay the price. Even if oil exports can continue, higher costs and fewer buyers will eat into profits and tax revenues—making it harder to fund schools, hospitals, and roads.
The Real Future: Prosperity Through Partnership, Not Isolation
At the end of the day, Alberta’s wealth and quality of life depend on strong, open relationships with other provinces. No amount of tax cuts or new currencies can replace what would be lost if Alberta becomes a landlocked country, shut out of easy trade with its best customers. Separatist fantasies about economic windfalls do not hold up to even basic math. Cutting off $80 billion in tax revenue, counting pension funds as government money, and pretending the rest of Canada will roll over is pure fiction.
What Alberta needs is not a new border but a new approach to building trust and working through tough issues with the rest of Canada. Prosperity comes from partnership, not isolation. Any move toward separation risks not just Alberta’s wallet, but its reputation, future, and place in the Canadian community.
Conclusion
When Albertans talk about breaking away, they need to think beyond short-term frustrations and realize what’s really at stake: jobs, trade, reputation, and the future prosperity of every person in the province.
Separation would not set Alberta free—it would set it back. Separation would make Alberta poorer.