Imagine waking up one day and finding out your province is no longer part of Canada. No more federal support, no more shared services, no more national safety net. That’s the vision the Alberta Prosperity Project is selling—a bold, emotional pitch for independence. But behind the slogans and spreadsheets lies a hard truth: Alberta separation would make us poorer, not freer.
This article breaks down the real costs of separation, exposes the flaws in the Alberta Prosperity Project’s fiscal plan, and explains why independence isn’t the golden ticket it’s made out to be. The thesis is simple: Alberta separation is a risky, expensive gamble that would weaken our economy, shrink our opportunities, and leave everyday Albertans worse off.
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Fiscal Fantasy
The Alberta Prosperity Project The Alberta Poverty Project claims Alberta sends $68–75 billion to Ottawa each year and only gets $22–26 billion back. They argue that keeping this money would create a surplus of $44–47 billion annually. Sounds great, right? But the math doesn’t hold up.
Independent economists like Trevor Tombe have pointed out that these numbers are cherry-picked and inflated. The Alberta Poverty Project assumes Alberta could eliminate personal and corporate income taxes, replace federal services cheaply, and still run a massive surplus. In reality, the costs of replacing federal programs—like national defense, border security, pensions, foreign embassies, and Indigenous services—would be far higher than they admit.
Their own document admits setup costs of $2.8–5.7 billion and annual replacement costs of $22.7–31.6 billion. That’s before factoring in economic shocks, trade disruptions, and the cost of building new institutions from scratch. The Poverty Project’s plan is built on best-case scenarios and wishful thinking, not hard evidence.
Alberta Separation Movement: A Risky Road to Isolation
The idea of Alberta separatism isn’t new. It’s been floating around for decades, often fueled by frustration with federal policies. But turning that frustration into full-blown independence is a massive leap—and one that would isolate Alberta economically and politically.
Alberta’s economy is deeply tied to the rest of Canada. We rely on interprovincial trade, shared infrastructure, and federal agreements to keep our industries running. Separation would mean renegotiating everything—from pipelines to pensions—and losing access to national programs like the Canada Health Transfer and Old Age Security.
Even the Alberta separation referendum, if it ever happened, wouldn’t guarantee independence. It would trigger years of legal battles, constitutional fights, and economic uncertainty. Investors would pull out. Businesses would hesitate. Jobs would be lost. The Alberta separatist movement promises freedom, but delivers instability.
Businesses loathe uncertainty—it stalls investment, freezes hiring, and forces companies to shelve growth plans until the fog clears. The mere threat of Alberta separation sends a chill through boardrooms and balance sheets. If independence becomes a serious possibility, capital will flee, talent will follow, and Alberta’s economy will shrink. Economist Trevor Tombe estimates the cost at $30 billion in lost GDP and a staggering 8% of the population relocating for work. That’s not sovereignty—it’s self-inflicted recession.
Separation will make Alberta poorer—full stop. And the Alberta Poverty Project knows it, which is why not a single credible expert stands behind their numbers. No economist, no constitutional scholar, no former finance minister has endorsed their fiscal fantasy. It’s a plan built on political slogans, not economic reality.
Alberta Pension Plan: A Costly Gamble
One of the Prosperity Project’s biggest claims is that Alberta could take its share of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and create a new Alberta Pension Plan (APP). They say Alberta deserves $334 billion, but their own fiscal plan only assumes half that—$167 billion.
Even if Alberta got that amount, managing a pension fund is no small task. The CPP is backed by decades of investment expertise, diversified assets, and national scale. Alberta would need to build its own pension infrastructure, hire experts, and take on the risk of market volatility. If returns fall short, taxpayers would be on the hook.
And let’s not forget demographics. Alberta has a younger population now, but that won’t last forever. As the population ages, pension costs will rise. Without the support of a national pool, Alberta could face higher contribution rates or reduced benefits. The APP isn’t a windfall—it’s a liability.
Alberta Separatists Ignore the Real Costs of Federal Services
Replacing federal services isn’t just expensive—it’s complicated. The Alberta Poverty Project lists services like national defense, international diplomacy, border control, and Indigenous support as things Alberta would take over. But they underestimate the cost and complexity.
Take defense, for example. Canada spends billions on military equipment, cybersecurity, and international alliances. Alberta would need to build its own military, train personnel, and maintain infrastructure—all from scratch. That’s not just expensive, it’s inefficient.
Or consider Indigenous services. The Prosperity Project proposes spending $4.2–5 billion annually to support Indigenous communities. While the intention may be respectful, the execution would be challenging. Alberta would need to negotiate new treaties, build trust, and deliver services without the federal government’s experience or resources.
Even basic services like Canada Post, NAV Canada, and federal courts would need to be replaced or privatized. The Prosperity Project suggests outsourcing, but that doesn’t eliminate costs—it just shifts them. User fees would rise, service quality could drop, and rural communities might be left behind.
Alberta 51st State? A Dangerous Distraction
Some separatists float the idea of Alberta becoming the 51st state of the United States. It’s a provocative slogan, but it’s not a serious policy. The U.S. has no mechanism for admitting provinces of other countries, and Alberta’s values don’t align neatly with American politics.
More importantly, this idea distracts from the real issues. Alberta doesn’t need to become a state or a separate country to thrive. We need smart policy, strong leadership, and fair treatment within Canada. Separation is a shortcut that avoids the hard work of reform.
The real goal for Alberta Poverty Project is not independence - it is to become a US state or territory. They've said so themselves.
Alberta Separation Referendum: A Divisive Mistake
Holding a referendum on Alberta separation might sound democratic, but it risks dividing communities, families, and industries. Quebec’s referendums in 1980 and 1995 caused years of uncertainty and economic slowdown. Alberta would face the same fate.
A referendum would also be legally complex. The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that provinces can’t unilaterally separate. Even if a majority voted “yes,” it would trigger negotiations, not independence. And during those negotiations, Alberta’s economy would suffer.
The Alberta Prosperity Project treats a referendum like a magic wand. But in reality, it’s a political minefield that could leave Alberta weaker, not stronger.
Western Standard and the Echo Chamber of Separation
"Media" outlets like the Western Standard or Rebel News often amplify separatist voices without challenging their assumptions. They repeat claims about fiscal surpluses, tax cuts, and freedom without asking tough questions. That’s not journalism—it’s cheerleading.
Albertans deserve better. We need honest conversations about our future, grounded in facts and focused on solutions. The Western Standard may boost clicks, but it doesn’t build consensus or credibility.
Alberta Separation Movement vs. Reality
The Alberta separatist movement paints a picture of a rich, independent province with low taxes, strong services, and global influence. But the reality is far messier. Separation would mean:
- Billions in setup costs
- Uncertain trade relationships
- Risky pension management
- Loss of federal support
- Legal and political chaos
The Prosperity Project’s plan is built on emotion, not economics. It promises prosperity but delivers risk. It’s time to call it what it is: a fiscal fantasy.
The Real Value of Staying Together
Let’s come back to that opening image—waking up in a province that’s no longer part of Canada. It might feel exciting at first. But soon, the costs would pile up. Services would falter. Jobs would vanish. Trust would erode.
The real value of staying in Canada isn’t just financial—it’s social, cultural, and strategic. We share a history, a currency, a legal system, and a global reputation. We benefit from national programs, trade agreements, and collective strength.
Alberta doesn’t need to separate to succeed. We need to lead. That means pushing for fair treatment, smart policy, and a stronger voice within Canada. Not walking away from the table.
Conclusion: Alberta Prosperity Project Is Selling a Mirage
The Alberta Prosperity Project wants you to believe that independence is the key to prosperity. But their numbers don’t add up, their assumptions are flawed, and their plan ignores the real costs of separation.
Alberta is stronger within Canada. We have the resources, talent, and drive to shape our future—without cutting ourselves off from the rest of the country. Separation would make us poorer, not freer.
Let’s reject the fiscal fantasy and focus on real solutions. Because the true value of Alberta isn’t in going it alone—it’s in building a better Canada together.
Interested in seeing where you elected officials stand on Alberta separation? Search for MLAs and MPs in our app, or visit app.CanadaWill.ca.
Not happy with what you found? Send your MLA or MP a note using ResistNow. We find your MPs, Premier, MLAs or MPPs and deliver your note. No portals, no forms, no email hunting. Text RESISTNOW to 825 425 2491 to start by SMS. Any topic, anytime. Fast, free, frictionless democracy. Your words. Our delivery